Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ATL | 17 | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176.6 |
| 2022 | ATL | 10 | 59 | 28 | 356 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 75.6 |
| 2023 | ATL | 17 | 90 | 53 | 667 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 137.3 |
| 2024 | ATL | 17 | 74 | 47 | 602 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 131.2 |
| 2025 | ATL | 15 | 106 | 80 | 854 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 195.4 |
| Career | — | 76 | 439 | 276 | 3505 | 15 | 1 | -4 | 716.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | TE | 2021 | 0.870 | 10.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 907 | 245 |
| Chris Cooley | TE | 2012 | 0.841 | 11.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 1092 | 425 |
| Todd Heap | TE | 2012 | 0.836 | 12.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1274 | 600 |
| Jeremy Shockey | TE | 2011 | 0.819 | 11.5 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1335 | 663 |
| Zach Miller washed out | TE | 2014 | 0.778 | 10.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 821 | 232 |
| Ozzie Newsome ⏳ 1981 | TE | 1990 | 0.755 | 12.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 1550 | 840 |
| John Mackey ⏳ 1966 | TE | 1970 | 0.743 | 10.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 916 | 387 |
| Fred Davis washed out | TE | 2013 | 0.738 | 9.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 446 | 76 |
| Charles Clay | TE | 2019 | 0.723 | 10.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 868 | 403 |
| Dan Ross ⏳ 1982 washed out | TE | 1986 | 0.719 | 9.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 652 | 160 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 653.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.723
Comp pool washed-out rate: 20% (4/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 582 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 611. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 956 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,175 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 806 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.810 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(653 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 653 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 653 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.