Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | WAS | 3 | 33 | 48 | 68.8 | 466 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 28.8 |
| 2013 | WAS | 5 | 81 | 155 | 52.3 | 854 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 31.6 |
| 2014 | WAS | 6 | 126 | 204 | 61.8 | 1710 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 88.4 |
| 2015 | WAS | 16 | 379 | 543 | 69.8 | 4166 | 29 | 11 | 26 | 48 | 5 | 277.4 |
| 2016 | WAS | 16 | 406 | 606 | 67.0 | 4917 | 25 | 12 | 34 | 96 | 4 | 288.3 |
| 2017 | WAS | 16 | 347 | 540 | 64.3 | 4093 | 27 | 13 | 49 | 179 | 4 | 261.6 |
| 2018 | MIN | 16 | 425 | 606 | 70.1 | 4298 | 30 | 10 | 44 | 123 | 1 | 272.2 |
| 2019 | MIN | 15 | 307 | 444 | 69.1 | 3603 | 26 | 6 | 31 | 63 | 1 | 228.4 |
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 349 | 516 | 67.6 | 4265 | 35 | 13 | 32 | 156 | 1 | 288.2 |
| 2021 | MIN | 16 | 372 | 561 | 66.3 | 4221 | 33 | 7 | 29 | 115 | 1 | 280.3 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 424 | 643 | 65.9 | 4547 | 29 | 14 | 31 | 97 | 2 | 277.6 |
| 2023 | MIN | 8 | 216 | 311 | 69.5 | 2331 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 0 | 143.7 |
| 2024 | ATL | 14 | 303 | 453 | 66.9 | 3508 | 18 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 154.3 |
| 2025 | ATL | 9 | 148 | 237 | 62.4 | 1541 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 90.3 |
| Career | — | 173 | 3916 | 5867 | 66.7 | 44520 | 297 | 130 | 338 | 965 | 20 | 2711.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | QB | 2017 | 0.698 | 16.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2770 | 88 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | QB | 2015 | 0.615 | 17.9 | 16 seasons · ended age 40 | 2 | 2382 | 96 |
| Dave Krieg ⏳ 1995 | QB | 1998 | 0.613 | 19.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2802 | 155 |
| Vinny Testaverde | QB | 2007 | 0.606 | 19.5 | 19 seasons · ended age 44 | 6 | 3206 | 538 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 2021 | 0.600 | 16.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2422 | 148 |
| Kerry Collins | QB | 2011 | 0.549 | 15.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 2487 | 116 |
| Chris Chandler | QB | 2004 | 0.545 | 16.6 | 14 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 1992 | 54 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 2022 | 0.500 | 21.6 | 21 seasons · ended age 45 | 8 | 6073 | 1907 |
| Steve Beuerlein | QB | 2003 | 0.476 | 18.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 1647 | 21 |
| Joe Montana ⏳ 1993 | QB | 1994 | 0.460 | 21.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 1 | 3174 | 201 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 292.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 14
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.530
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/14)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 267 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 267. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 541 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 369 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 432 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(432 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 432 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.847 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 10 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 292 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.