Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | SEA | 15 | 228 | 1050 | 9 | 35 | 27 | 165 | 0 | 202.5 |
| 2023 | SEA | 15 | 219 | 905 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 259 | 1 | 197.4 |
| 2024 | SEA | 11 | 153 | 573 | 7 | 53 | 46 | 299 | 1 | 179.2 |
| 2025 | SEA | 15 | 190 | 879 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 240 | 0 | 166.9 |
| Career | — | 56 | 790 | 3407 | 29 | 155 | 127 | 963 | 2 | 746.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews washed out | RB | 2016 | 0.885 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 1060 | 509 |
| Eddie Lacy washed out | RB | 2017 | 0.825 | 14.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 725 | 67 |
| Leonard Fournette washed out | RB | 2023 | 0.809 | 16.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 1190 | 470 |
| Joseph Addai washed out | RB | 2011 | 0.790 | 15.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 1066 | 413 |
| Ottis Anderson ⏳ 1982 | RB | 1992 | 0.780 | 15.1 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 1931 | 972 |
| Terry Metcalf ⏳ 1976 washed out | RB | 1981 | 0.777 | 13.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 889 | 241 |
| Bobby Mitchell ⏳ 1961 | RB | 1967 | 0.772 | 14.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1757 | 1012 |
| Kevin Jones washed out | RB | 2009 | 0.766 | 13.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 696 | 13 |
| Travis Henry washed out | RB | 2007 | 0.763 | 13.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 988 | 349 |
| Julius Jones washed out | RB | 2010 | 0.762 | 12.6 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 866 | 373 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 318.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.768
Comp pool washed-out rate: 65% (13/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 431 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 441. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 824 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,081 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 630 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.506 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(319 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 319 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 318 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.