Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | PHI | 16 | 68 | 291 | 5 | 50 | 33 | 253 | 1 | 119.4 |
| 2022 | PHI | 17 | 53 | 240 | 4 | 29 | 23 | 169 | 0 | 87.9 |
| 2023 | PHI | 16 | 84 | 364 | 2 | 37 | 30 | 183 | 0 | 90.7 |
| 2024 | PHI | 17 | 75 | 290 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 116 | 0 | 62.6 |
| 2025 | PIT | 15 | 102 | 501 | 4 | 72 | 62 | 410 | 3 | 191.1 |
| Career | — | 81 | 382 | 1686 | 16 | 210 | 164 | 1131 | 4 | 551.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Delpino ⏳ 1991 washed out | RB | 1993 | 0.827 | 8.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 593 | 155 |
| Leroy Hoard ⏳ 1994 | RB | 1999 | 0.808 | 9.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 1027 | 418 |
| Thomas Jones | RB | 2011 | 0.793 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 1870 | 1152 |
| Darrel Williams washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.734 | 9.9 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 351 | 21 |
| Willie Galimore ⏳ 1961 washed out | RB | 1963 | 0.720 | 9.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 601 | 77 |
| Roland Harper ⏳ 1978 washed out | RB | 1982 | 0.720 | 9.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 531 | 73 |
| Garrison Hearst ⏳ 1997 | RB | 2004 | 0.718 | 13.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 1249 | 754 |
| Jerome Harrison washed out | RB | 2012 | 0.709 | 10.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 336 | 58 |
| Ernie Green ⏳ 1966 washed out | RB | 1968 | 0.696 | 11.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 812 | 205 |
| Reuben Droughns | RB | 2008 | 0.690 | 11.9 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 691 | 405 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 222.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.705
Comp pool washed-out rate: 60% (12/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 328 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 330. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 575 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 558 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 421 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.529 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(223 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 223 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 222 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.