Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | WAS | 16 | 44 | 30 | 365 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.5 |
| Career | — | 16 | 44 | 30 | 365 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Graham washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.998 | 3.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 146 | 84 |
| Dennis Northcutt | WR | 2009 | 0.969 | 7.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 9 | 836 | 633 |
| Peerless Price | WR | 2007 | 0.969 | 9.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 8 | 841 | 685 |
| Quincy Morgan washed out | WR | 2006 | 0.940 | 6.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 380 | 301 |
| Jeremy Kerley washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.931 | 7.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 600 | 483 |
| Harry Douglas | WR | 2017 | 0.931 | 8.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 667 | 518 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher washed out | WR | 2014 | 0.920 | 3.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 91 | 27 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | 2021 | 0.917 | 9.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 8 | 599 | 470 |
| Demetrius Williams washed out | WR | 2010 | 0.910 | 4.8 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 164 | 96 |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | 2018 | 0.900 | 16.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 9 | 1688 | 1300 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 96.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: comp_weighted
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.908
Comp pool washed-out rate: 60% (12/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 479 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 465. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 407 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 243 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 479 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.452 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.500 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(217 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 217 × 0.500) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 6 full seasons (last played 2019) |
| = Final production score | 96 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.