Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | MIN | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| 2021 | MIN | 17 | 82 | 50 | 655 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 158.5 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 90 | 60 | 650 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 153.6 |
| 2023 | MIN | 16 | 75 | 48 | 540 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 118.0 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 8 | 18 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 2024 | NWE | 7 | 18 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 2024 | WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 75 | 283 | 172 | 1959 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 463.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | WR | 2003 | 0.817 | 7.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 689 | 245 |
| Charles Johnson | WR | 2002 | 0.789 | 7.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 696 | 145 |
| Ashley Lelie washed out | WR | 2008 | 0.789 | 7.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 547 | 38 |
| Jeremy Kerley washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.786 | 7.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 600 | 178 |
| Andre Roberts | WR | 2022 | 0.782 | 7.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 6 | 594 | 74 |
| Jim Mutscheller ⏳ 1960 washed out | WR | 1961 | 0.766 | 8.3 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 587 | 49 |
| Tavon Austin | WR | 2022 | 0.766 | 8.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 709 | 130 |
| Gail Cogdill ⏳ 1965 | WR | 1969 | 0.755 | 9.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 789 | 169 |
| Michael Jenkins | WR | 2012 | 0.745 | 7.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 827 | 252 |
| Josh Morgan washed out | WR | 2014 | 0.743 | 7.3 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 484 | 60 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 64.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.747
Comp pool washed-out rate: 50% (10/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 148 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 157. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 452 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 439 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 148 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.618 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(91 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 91 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 64 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.