Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | NOR | 7 | 10 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 2021 | NOR | 14 | 22 | 13 | 159 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 52.9 |
| 2022 | NOR | 16 | 65 | 42 | 508 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 134.8 |
| 2023 | NOR | 13 | 59 | 37 | 368 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 97.8 |
| 2024 | NOR | 17 | 66 | 50 | 548 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 118.8 |
| 2025 | NOR | 16 | 97 | 74 | 828 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 172.8 |
| Career | — | 83 | 319 | 220 | 2450 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 585.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alge Crumpler | TE | 2010 | 0.790 | 11.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1025 | 240 |
| Frank Wycheck | TE | 2003 | 0.775 | 8.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1044 | 243 |
| Desmond Clark | TE | 2010 | 0.750 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 795 | 245 |
| Doug Cosbie ⏳ 1985 | TE | 1988 | 0.750 | 8.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 716 | 137 |
| Tony Scheffler | TE | 2013 | 0.746 | 9.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 714 | 16 |
| Mickey Shuler ⏳ 1985 | TE | 1991 | 0.744 | 10.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 5 | 968 | 442 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | TE | 2013 | 0.740 | 9.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 670 | 204 |
| Benjamin Watson | TE | 2019 | 0.738 | 8.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 39 | 9 | 1392 | 753 |
| Rodney Holman ⏳ 1989 | TE | 1995 | 0.737 | 7.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 5 | 907 | 307 |
| Heath Miller | TE | 2015 | 0.736 | 10.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1519 | 567 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 356.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.722
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 268 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 275. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 492 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 758 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 371 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.961 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(356 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 356 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 356 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.