Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 66.6 | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 55 | 234 | 5 | 314.8 |
| 2021 | LAC | 17 | 443 | 672 | 65.9 | 5014 | 38 | 15 | 63 | 302 | 3 | 368.8 |
| 2022 | LAC | 17 | 477 | 699 | 68.2 | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 54 | 147 | 0 | 268.3 |
| 2023 | LAC | 13 | 297 | 456 | 65.1 | 3134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 3 | 224.2 |
| 2024 | LAC | 17 | 332 | 504 | 65.9 | 3870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 2 | 271.4 |
| 2025 | LAC | 16 | 340 | 512 | 66.4 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 2 | 274.9 |
| Career | — | 95 | 2285 | 3438 | 66.5 | 24820 | 163 | 58 | 376 | 1715 | 15 | 1722.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.854 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 11 | 5062 | 2572 |
| Andrew Luck washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.735 | 21.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1714 | 285 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.716 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 10 | 3815 | 2053 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1967 | QB | 1978 | 0.675 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 11 | 4047 | 1838 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.665 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 11 | 4082 | 2124 |
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.657 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 2785 | 1350 |
| Mike Vick | QB | 2015 | 0.656 | 23.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 7 | 2581 | 964 |
| Steve Grogan ⏳ 1980 | QB | 1990 | 0.649 | 18.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 8 | 2291 | 716 |
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1999 | 0.641 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 11 | 4224 | 1959 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1961 | QB | 1972 | 0.611 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 3028 | 1453 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,606.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.636
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,322 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,378. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,009 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,589 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,821 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.882 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,606 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,606 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,606 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.