Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | PIT | 14 | 79 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 191.7 |
| 2018 | PIT | 16 | 166 | 111 | 1426 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 294.9 |
| 2019 | PIT | 12 | 70 | 42 | 552 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 113.2 |
| 2020 | PIT | 16 | 128 | 97 | 831 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 228.1 |
| 2021 | PIT | 5 | 28 | 15 | 129 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 34.8 |
| 2022 | KAN | 16 | 101 | 78 | 933 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 183.3 |
| 2023 | NWE | 11 | 47 | 29 | 260 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 61.0 |
| 2024 | KAN | 14 | 26 | 18 | 231 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 53.1 |
| 2025 | KAN | 16 | 43 | 31 | 332 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 70.2 |
| Career | — | 120 | 688 | 479 | 5611 | 33 | 4 | 22 | 1230.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pickens | WR | 2000 | 0.715 | 13.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1177 | 24 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 2023 | 0.684 | 15.2 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1602 | 277 |
| Miles Austin | WR | 2015 | 0.673 | 13.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 990 | 137 |
| Santonio Holmes | WR | 2014 | 0.663 | 11.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1065 | 13 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | 2023 | 0.651 | 12.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1066 | 72 |
| Darrell Jackson | WR | 2008 | 0.647 | 13.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1170 | 32 |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | 2018 | 0.638 | 12.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1466 | 308 |
| Andre Rison ⏳ 1996 | WR | 2000 | 0.638 | 12.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1636 | 360 |
| Isaac Bruce | WR | 2009 | 0.638 | 13.1 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 8 | 2329 | 946 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | WR | 2015 | 0.628 | 11.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1234 | 343 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 405.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.627
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 303 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 317. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 604 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 208 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 405 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(405 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 405 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 405 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.