Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | PIT | 5 | 6 | 12 | 50.0 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 2020 | PIT | 1 | 4 | 5 | 80.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | TEN | 2 | 40 | 68 | 58.8 | 411 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 16.8 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 13 | 262 | 417 | 62.8 | 2464 | 13 | 10 | 30 | 163 | 3 | 152.9 |
| 2023 | ARI | 8 | 167 | 266 | 62.8 | 1569 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 163 | 3 | 107.1 |
| 2023 | MIN | 5 | 95 | 151 | 62.9 | 895 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 163 | 3 | 68.1 |
| 2024 | SFO | 2 | 32 | 47 | 68.1 | 361 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 28.8 |
| 2025 | NWE | 2 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Career | — | 38 | 607 | 968 | 62.7 | 5757 | 30 | 25 | 118 | 584 | 11 | 376.7 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | QB | 2004 | 0.566 | 13.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 345 | 130 |
| Steve Spurrier ⏳ 1975 | QB | 1976 | 0.520 | 9.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 442 | 92 |
| Shane Matthews | QB | 2006 | 0.519 | 14.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 305 | 138 |
| Drew Stanton | QB | 2020 | 0.511 | 8.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 214 | 45 |
| Alex Van Pelt | QB | 2003 | 0.506 | 7.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 167 | -3 |
| Mike Glennon | QB | 2022 | 0.503 | 13.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 399 | 37 |
| Chris Redman | QB | 2011 | 0.491 | 11.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 198 | 48 |
| Billy Volek | QB | 2011 | 0.488 | 13.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 280 | 7 |
| Kelly Holcomb | QB | 2007 | 0.473 | 12.5 | 4 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 322 | 147 |
| Rex Grossman | QB | 2013 | 0.472 | 13.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 478 | 167 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 79.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.476
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 176 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 130. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 715 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 632 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 184 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.845 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.688 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(156 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 156 × 0.688) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 4 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 79 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.