Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | LAR | 16 | 24 | 11 | 104 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27.4 |
| 2018 | LAR | 16 | 53 | 29 | 402 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 100.0 |
| 2019 | LAR | 16 | 43 | 21 | 326 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 61.9 |
| 2020 | LAR | 16 | 81 | 52 | 618 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 122.3 |
| 2021 | 2TM | 12 | 49 | 29 | 396 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 80.6 |
| 2021 | TEN | 5 | 13 | 10 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 2021 | DET | 7 | 36 | 19 | 306 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 61.6 |
| 2022 | DET | 14 | 59 | 38 | 479 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 103.9 |
| 2023 | DET | 17 | 64 | 40 | 608 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 128.8 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 9 | 24 | 13 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 38.4 |
| 2024 | DEN | 5 | 19 | 12 | 183 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36.3 |
| 2024 | JAX | 4 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 5 | 21 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.1 |
| Career | — | 142 | 491 | 286 | 3818 | 23 | 8 | 36 | 803.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | WR | 2003 | 0.832 | 7.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 689 | 22 |
| Ike Hilliard | WR | 2008 | 0.806 | 8.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1081 | 218 |
| James Thrash | WR | 2008 | 0.805 | 8.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 634 | 74 |
| Jason Avant | WR | 2015 | 0.803 | 6.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 732 | 89 |
| Courtney Hawkins | WR | 2000 | 0.794 | 6.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 682 | 36 |
| Dennis Northcutt | WR | 2009 | 0.765 | 7.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 836 | 160 |
| David Patten | WR | 2008 | 0.765 | 8.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 730 | 189 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | 2021 | 0.763 | 9.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 599 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | WR | 2003 | 0.755 | 6.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 961 | 237 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | 2018 | 0.755 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 549 | 1 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 91.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.757
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 107 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 105. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 213 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 180 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 107 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(107 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 107 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 91 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.