Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CIN | 14 | 178 | 626 | 4 | 34 | 30 | 287 | 0 | 139.3 |
| 2018 | CIN | 14 | 237 | 1168 | 8 | 55 | 43 | 296 | 1 | 243.4 |
| 2019 | CIN | 16 | 278 | 1137 | 5 | 45 | 35 | 287 | 3 | 225.4 |
| 2020 | CIN | 6 | 119 | 428 | 3 | 26 | 21 | 138 | 1 | 99.6 |
| 2021 | CIN | 16 | 292 | 1205 | 13 | 48 | 42 | 314 | 3 | 285.9 |
| 2022 | CIN | 14 | 210 | 814 | 7 | 75 | 60 | 441 | 2 | 239.5 |
| 2023 | CIN | 17 | 257 | 1034 | 9 | 64 | 52 | 376 | 3 | 265.0 |
| 2024 | HOU | 14 | 245 | 1016 | 11 | 52 | 36 | 309 | 1 | 240.5 |
| Career | — | 111 | 1816 | 7428 | 60 | 399 | 319 | 2448 | 14 | 1738.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | RB | 2016 | 0.842 | 16.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 1688 | 129 |
| Curtis Martin | RB | 2006 | 0.828 | 15.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 2496 | 749 |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | 2019 | 0.797 | 17.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 2080 | 301 |
| Jamal Lewis | RB | 2009 | 0.765 | 15.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1705 | 220 |
| Thurman Thomas ⏳ 1994 | RB | 2000 | 0.702 | 18.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 2302 | 559 |
| Barry Sanders ⏳ 1996 | RB | 1998 | 0.698 | 17.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 2500 | 514 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | 2022 | 0.696 | 15.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 1734 | 554 |
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.692 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 3005 | 1216 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | 2014 | 0.691 | 18.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1912 | 27 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 2023 | 0.669 | 19.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1582 | 112 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 576.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.686
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 479 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 477. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,053 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,824 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 824 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(824 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 824 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 576 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.