Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | CIN | 10 | 264 | 404 | 65.3 | 2688 | 13 | 5 | 37 | 142 | 3 | 163.7 |
| 2021 | CIN | 16 | 366 | 520 | 70.4 | 4611 | 34 | 14 | 40 | 118 | 2 | 306.2 |
| 2022 | CIN | 16 | 414 | 606 | 68.3 | 4475 | 35 | 12 | 75 | 257 | 5 | 338.7 |
| 2023 | CIN | 10 | 244 | 365 | 66.8 | 2309 | 15 | 6 | 31 | 88 | 0 | 145.2 |
| 2024 | CIN | 17 | 460 | 652 | 70.6 | 4918 | 43 | 9 | 42 | 201 | 2 | 360.8 |
| 2025 | CIN | 7 | 144 | 220 | 65.5 | 1573 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 113.3 |
| Career | — | 76 | 1892 | 2767 | 68.4 | 20574 | 154 | 50 | 237 | 830 | 12 | 1427.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.744 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 5 | 2785 | 789 |
| Mark Brunell | QB | 2011 | 0.731 | 20.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 7 | 2464 | 1044 |
| Aaron Brooks washed out | QB | 2006 | 0.731 | 19.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1629 | 62 |
| Marc Bulger | QB | 2010 | 0.710 | 19.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1437 | 317 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.658 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 12 | 5277 | 2784 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.658 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 8 | 3815 | 1667 |
| Joe Montana ⏳ 1985 | QB | 1994 | 0.651 | 21.1 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 3174 | 1390 |
| Kordell Stewart | QB | 2005 | 0.638 | 18.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1814 | 260 |
| Daryle Lamonica ⏳ 1970 | QB | 1974 | 0.635 | 20.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1459 | 270 |
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.625 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 2163 | 647 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 996.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.629
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,058 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,099. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,862 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,465 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,540 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.898 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,383 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,383 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.880 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.818 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 8 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 996 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.