Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | DET | 7 | 15 | 74 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 2024 | DET | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Career | — | 9 | 21 | 96 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 29.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle washed out | RB | 2015 | 0.867 | 12.1 | 3 seasons · ended age 24 | 2 | 172 | 126 |
| Justin Jackson washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.789 | 6.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 4 | 288 | 213 |
| Brandon Jackson washed out | RB | 2012 | 0.775 | 10.5 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 3 | 374 | 295 |
| Garrison Hearst ⏳ 1993 | RB | 2004 | 0.772 | 13.8 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 8 | 1249 | 1037 |
| Felix Jones washed out | RB | 2013 | 0.766 | 9.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 5 | 609 | 518 |
| Benny Snell washed out | RB | 2022 | 0.748 | 3.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 24 | 3 | 168 | 106 |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | 2023 | 0.744 | 5.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 454 | 334 |
| Tim Biakabutuka ⏳ 1996 washed out | RB | 2001 | 0.736 | 11.0 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 5 | 446 | 381 |
| Lamar Miller washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.735 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 27 | 6 | 1150 | 978 |
| Curtis Enis ⏳ 1998 washed out | RB | 2000 | 0.715 | 7.6 | 3 seasons · ended age 24 | 2 | 248 | 196 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 72.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.732
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 360 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 354. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 644 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 314 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 360 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.343 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.133 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(124 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 124 × 0.133) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 4 full seasons (last played 2021) |
| = Final production score | 72 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.