Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | SFO | 16 | 38 | 24 | 282 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.2 |
| 2022 | SFO | 16 | 56 | 35 | 416 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80.6 |
| 2023 | SFO | 13 | 33 | 19 | 265 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 51.5 |
| 2024 | SFO | 15 | 113 | 77 | 975 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 208.5 |
| 2025 | SFO | 12 | 74 | 44 | 495 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 133.5 |
| Career | — | 72 | 314 | 199 | 2433 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 554.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | WR | 2013 | 0.764 | 13.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1428 | 598 |
| James Jones | WR | 2015 | 0.763 | 11.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 1168 | 438 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.763 | 13.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 1542 | 662 |
| Nate Washington | WR | 2015 | 0.753 | 9.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1256 | 464 |
| Deion Branch | WR | 2013 | 0.747 | 10.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 1190 | 444 |
| Lance Moore | WR | 2015 | 0.746 | 11.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1004 | 362 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | WR | 2011 | 0.738 | 15.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 1387 | 862 |
| Amani Toomer | WR | 2008 | 0.737 | 10.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 1499 | 627 |
| Art Monk ⏳ 1985 | WR | 1995 | 0.736 | 11.3 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 1918 | 942 |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | 2018 | 0.733 | 10.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1018 | 373 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 564.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.734
Comp pool washed-out rate: 15% (3/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 537 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 552. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 826 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,064 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 599 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.941 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(564 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 564 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 564 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.