Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | LAR | 7 | 112 | 205 | 54.6 | 1089 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 47.2 |
| 2017 | LAR | 15 | 296 | 477 | 62.1 | 3804 | 28 | 7 | 28 | 51 | 1 | 245.3 |
| 2018 | LAR | 16 | 364 | 561 | 64.9 | 4688 | 32 | 12 | 43 | 108 | 2 | 290.3 |
| 2019 | LAR | 16 | 394 | 626 | 62.9 | 4638 | 22 | 16 | 33 | 40 | 2 | 237.5 |
| 2020 | LAR | 15 | 370 | 552 | 67.0 | 3952 | 20 | 13 | 51 | 99 | 4 | 232.0 |
| 2021 | DET | 14 | 332 | 494 | 67.2 | 3245 | 19 | 8 | 17 | 87 | 0 | 180.5 |
| 2022 | DET | 17 | 382 | 587 | 65.1 | 4438 | 29 | 7 | 29 | 73 | 0 | 272.8 |
| 2023 | DET | 17 | 407 | 605 | 67.3 | 4575 | 30 | 12 | 32 | 21 | 2 | 281.1 |
| 2024 | DET | 17 | 390 | 539 | 72.4 | 4629 | 37 | 12 | 35 | 56 | 0 | 302.8 |
| 2025 | DET | 15 | 348 | 507 | 68.6 | 4036 | 32 | 5 | 16 | 43 | 0 | 277.7 |
| Career | — | 149 | 3395 | 5153 | 65.9 | 39094 | 254 | 99 | 292 | 594 | 12 | 2367.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.890 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 7 | 4082 | 1495 |
| Drew Brees | QB | 2020 | 0.809 | 23.6 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 10 | 5277 | 2439 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2022 | 0.768 | 18.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 6 | 3815 | 1298 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.756 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 2305 | 377 |
| Jake Plummer | QB | 2006 | 0.750 | 17.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 2163 | 128 |
| Eli Manning | QB | 2019 | 0.719 | 16.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 3331 | 1200 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1978 | 0.625 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 4047 | 1197 |
| John Hadl ⏳ 1971 | QB | 1977 | 0.614 | 17.8 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 5 | 2419 | 528 |
| John Elway ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1998 | 0.606 | 20.0 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 4088 | 1604 |
| Drew Bledsoe | QB | 2006 | 0.595 | 16.9 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 2881 | 494 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,209.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.641
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 909 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 960. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,515 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,936 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,273 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,273 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,273 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.950 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,209 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.