Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | SFO | 8 | 39 | 148 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 29.1 |
| 2021 | SFO | 11 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 29 | 23 | 157 | 0 | 47.5 |
| 2022 | JAX | 17 | 46 | 194 | 2 | 26 | 20 | 126 | 1 | 70.0 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | JAX | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | NWE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | NWE | 15 | 20 | 69 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 59 | 1 | 28.8 |
| Career | — | 61 | 121 | 479 | 4 | 79 | 60 | 375 | 2 | 175.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard washed out | RB | 2014 | 0.845 | 4.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 320 | 63 |
| Kenny Watson washed out | RB | 2008 | 0.838 | 8.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 432 | 212 |
| Aveion Cason washed out | RB | 2008 | 0.822 | 5.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 176 | 7 |
| Leon Johnson washed out | RB | 2004 | 0.812 | 4.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 208 | 2 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | RB | 2007 | 0.806 | 3.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 271 | 150 |
| Jason McKie washed out | RB | 2010 | 0.796 | 2.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 144 | 6 |
| Zack Crockett | RB | 2007 | 0.771 | 4.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 466 | 268 |
| Brandon Bennett | RB | 2004 | 0.766 | 3.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 267 | 94 |
| Jamize Olawale washed out | RB | 2020 | 0.765 | 3.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 139 | 3 |
| Travis Jervey | RB | 2003 | 0.764 | 3.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 58 | 2 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 22.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.770
Comp pool washed-out rate: 65% (13/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 74 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 75. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 157 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 193 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 74 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.418 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(31 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 31 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 22 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.