Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | WAS | 16 | 78 | 59 | 604 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 123.6 |
| 2016 | WAS | 16 | 99 | 67 | 847 | 7 | 2 | -2 | 189.5 |
| 2017 | WAS | 15 | 103 | 66 | 789 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 154.3 |
| 2018 | WAS | 9 | 49 | 29 | 388 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 82.8 |
| 2019 | NYJ | 16 | 122 | 78 | 833 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 197.7 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 12 | 89 | 59 | 699 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 166.3 |
| 2021 | NYJ | 12 | 71 | 51 | 447 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 105.7 |
| 2022 | BUF | 4 | 13 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2023 | WAS | 17 | 20 | 16 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.9 |
| 2024 | WAS | 6 | 13 | 9 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24.2 |
| Career | — | 123 | 657 | 440 | 4898 | 31 | 17 | 82 | 1088.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | WR | 2015 | 0.736 | 11.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1004 | 79 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | WR | 2015 | 0.734 | 11.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1234 | 190 |
| Billy Howton ⏳ 1961 | WR | 1963 | 0.719 | 10.9 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1230 | 182 |
| Roy Jefferson ⏳ 1974 | WR | 1976 | 0.695 | 10.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1071 | 89 |
| Gene Washington ⏳ 1977 | WR | 1979 | 0.683 | 10.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1022 | 31 |
| Wayne Chrebet | WR | 2005 | 0.676 | 9.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1137 | 26 |
| Mohamed Sanu | WR | 2021 | 0.674 | 10.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1042 | 33 |
| Marty Booker | WR | 2009 | 0.672 | 10.8 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1131 | 76 |
| Deion Branch | WR | 2013 | 0.666 | 10.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1190 | 158 |
| Nate Washington | WR | 2015 | 0.662 | 9.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1256 | 124 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 116.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.659
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 155 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 148. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 315 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 90 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 165 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(165 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 165 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 116 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.