Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | PIT | 14 | 32 | 144 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2018 | PIT | 13 | 215 | 973 | 12 | 71 | 55 | 497 | 1 | 272.0 |
| 2019 | PIT | 10 | 116 | 464 | 4 | 38 | 34 | 251 | 3 | 145.5 |
| 2020 | PIT | 13 | 169 | 721 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 215 | 0 | 160.6 |
| 2021 | ARI | 15 | 202 | 752 | 15 | 39 | 37 | 375 | 3 | 253.7 |
| 2022 | ARI | 13 | 183 | 782 | 7 | 58 | 46 | 300 | 1 | 196.2 |
| 2023 | ARI | 13 | 208 | 1040 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 165 | 2 | 201.5 |
| 2024 | ARI | 16 | 236 | 1094 | 8 | 55 | 47 | 414 | 1 | 243.8 |
| 2025 | ARI | 3 | 32 | 95 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 31.3 |
| Career | — | 110 | 1393 | 6065 | 60 | 347 | 289 | 2255 | 12 | 1519.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | RB | 2004 | 0.755 | 16.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1772 | 222 |
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.733 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 8 | 3005 | 1045 |
| Ahman Green | RB | 2009 | 0.716 | 19.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1805 | 145 |
| Stephen Davis | RB | 2006 | 0.708 | 15.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1357 | 180 |
| Fred Taylor | RB | 2010 | 0.701 | 17.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 5 | 1929 | 482 |
| Tiki Barber | RB | 2006 | 0.695 | 20.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 2234 | 628 |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | 2019 | 0.693 | 17.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 2080 | 235 |
| Roger Craig ⏳ 1989 | RB | 1993 | 0.691 | 16.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1964 | 280 |
| Jamal Lewis | RB | 2009 | 0.686 | 15.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1705 | 64 |
| Curtis Martin | RB | 2006 | 0.682 | 15.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 2496 | 575 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 461.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.675
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 368 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 350. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 852 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,508 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 658 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(658 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 658 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 461 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.