Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | TAM | 16 | 312 | 535 | 58.3 | 4042 | 22 | 15 | 54 | 213 | 6 | 265.0 |
| 2016 | TAM | 16 | 345 | 567 | 60.8 | 4090 | 28 | 18 | 53 | 165 | 1 | 242.1 |
| 2017 | TAM | 13 | 282 | 442 | 63.8 | 3504 | 19 | 11 | 33 | 135 | 1 | 183.7 |
| 2018 | TAM | 11 | 244 | 378 | 64.6 | 2992 | 19 | 14 | 49 | 281 | 1 | 187.8 |
| 2019 | TAM | 16 | 380 | 626 | 60.7 | 5109 | 33 | 30 | 59 | 250 | 1 | 283.4 |
| 2020 | NOR | 4 | 7 | 11 | 63.6 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -6 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 2021 | NOR | 7 | 95 | 161 | 59.0 | 1170 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 166 | 1 | 115.4 |
| 2022 | NOR | 3 | 73 | 115 | 63.5 | 858 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 35.9 |
| 2023 | NOR | 7 | 25 | 47 | 53.2 | 264 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 2024 | CLE | 12 | 181 | 296 | 61.1 | 2121 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 83 | 1 | 117.1 |
| 2025 | NYG | 3 | 37 | 66 | 56.1 | 567 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 33.0 |
| Career | — | 108 | 1981 | 3244 | 61.1 | 24792 | 156 | 113 | 330 | 1320 | 13 | 1477.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken O'Brien ⏳ 1990 | QB | 1993 | 0.580 | 16.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 1523 | 227 |
| Joe Namath ⏳ 1973 | QB | 1977 | 0.576 | 15.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 1694 | 366 |
| Matt Cassel | QB | 2018 | 0.571 | 15.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 1113 | 185 |
| Kerry Collins | QB | 2011 | 0.568 | 15.1 | 15 seasons · ended age 38 | 7 | 2487 | 864 |
| Ed Brown ⏳ 1963 | QB | 1964 | 0.568 | 13.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 1099 | 149 |
| Jay Schroeder ⏳ 1991 | QB | 1994 | 0.566 | 15.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 1380 | 254 |
| Jay Cutler | QB | 2017 | 0.565 | 16.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 4 | 2305 | 638 |
| Trent Dilfer | QB | 2007 | 0.559 | 13.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 35 | 4 | 1341 | 184 |
| Ken Anderson ⏳ 1979 | QB | 1984 | 0.552 | 18.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 5 | 2574 | 850 |
| Bob Griese ⏳ 1975 | QB | 1980 | 0.552 | 14.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 5 | 1859 | 572 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 515.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.553
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 490 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 399. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 988 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 376 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 736 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(736 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 736 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 515 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.