Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | PHI | 15 | 77 | 148 | 52.0 | 1061 | 6 | 4 | 63 | 354 | 3 | 93.8 |
| 2021 | PHI | 15 | 265 | 432 | 61.3 | 3144 | 16 | 9 | 139 | 784 | 10 | 292.2 |
| 2022 | PHI | 15 | 306 | 460 | 66.5 | 3701 | 22 | 6 | 165 | 760 | 13 | 360.0 |
| 2023 | PHI | 17 | 352 | 538 | 65.4 | 3858 | 23 | 15 | 157 | 605 | 15 | 348.8 |
| 2024 | PHI | 15 | 248 | 361 | 68.7 | 2903 | 18 | 5 | 150 | 630 | 14 | 307.1 |
| 2025 | PHI | 16 | 294 | 454 | 64.8 | 3224 | 25 | 6 | 105 | 421 | 8 | 291.1 |
| Career | — | 93 | 1542 | 2393 | 64.4 | 17891 | 110 | 45 | 779 | 3554 | 63 | 1693.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | QB | 2015 | 0.788 | 23.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 7 | 2581 | 964 |
| Dan Marino ⏳ 1988 | QB | 1999 | 0.755 | 21.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 38 | 11 | 4224 | 1959 |
| Andrew Luck washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.752 | 21.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1714 | 285 |
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.703 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 11 | 5062 | 2572 |
| Steve McNair | QB | 2007 | 0.692 | 21.6 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 2785 | 1350 |
| Brett Favre ⏳ 1996 | QB | 2010 | 0.685 | 23.0 | 19 seasons · ended age 41 | 14 | 5135 | 2682 |
| Cam Newton | QB | 2021 | 0.682 | 24.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 3056 | 879 |
| Donovan McNabb | QB | 2011 | 0.628 | 24.5 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 8 | 3154 | 1510 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1961 | QB | 1972 | 0.624 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 10 | 3028 | 1453 |
| Fran Tarkenton ⏳ 1967 | QB | 1978 | 0.623 | 19.7 | 18 seasons · ended age 38 | 11 | 4047 | 1838 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 2,024.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.610
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,390 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,383. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,494 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,736 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 2,258 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.896 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(2,023 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 2,023 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 2,024 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.