Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CIN | 9 | 171 | 243 | 70.4 | 1936 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 127 | 3 | 136.1 |
| 2024 | CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | CIN | 5 | 81 | 125 | 64.8 | 771 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 46.7 |
| Career | — | 17 | 252 | 368 | 68.5 | 2707 | 18 | 15 | 38 | 164 | 4 | 182.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | QB | 2022 | 0.698 | 13.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 399 | 98 |
| Colt McCoy | QB | 2022 | 0.642 | 13.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 36 | 3 | 449 | 89 |
| Shane Matthews | QB | 2006 | 0.639 | 14.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 305 | 182 |
| Chris Redman | QB | 2011 | 0.633 | 11.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 198 | 48 |
| Rex Grossman | QB | 2013 | 0.621 | 13.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 31 | 1 | 478 | 167 |
| Jim Miller | QB | 2004 | 0.613 | 13.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 345 | 262 |
| Sage Rosenfels washed out | QB | 2011 | 0.610 | 13.0 | 4 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 249 | 71 |
| Vince Evans ⏳ 1983 | QB | 1995 | 0.610 | 13.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 40 | 1 | 591 | 74 |
| Drew Stanton | QB | 2020 | 0.592 | 8.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 33 | 3 | 214 | 45 |
| Jay Fiedler | QB | 2005 | 0.583 | 16.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 939 | 680 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 108.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.586
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 301 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 341. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,104 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 715 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 364 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.798 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.438 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(290 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 290 × 0.438) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 108 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.