Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 25 | 19 | 196 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 56.9 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 13 | 107 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29.7 |
| 2025 | SEA | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Career | — | 41 | 44 | 34 | 323 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 90.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Gilmore washed out | WR | 2007 | 0.888 | 2.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 135 | 49 |
| Jeremy Ross washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.882 | 2.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 103 | 12 |
| David Dunn washed out | WR | 2001 | 0.876 | 3.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 161 | 7 |
| Nate Poole washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.874 | 3.4 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 65 | 8 |
| Matt Hatchette washed out | WR | 2003 | 0.872 | 5.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 127 | 34 |
| David Palmer washed out | WR | 2000 | 0.868 | 2.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 87 | 1 |
| Nick Williams washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.836 | 3.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 28 | 0 | 48 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett washed out | WR | 2003 | 0.820 | 4.0 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 252 | 48 |
| Brandon Zylstra washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.818 | 4.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 75 | 49 |
| Mike Furrey | WR | 2010 | 0.815 | 9.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 426 | 362 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 13.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.825
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 51 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 52. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 175 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 74 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 51 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.300 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(15 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 15 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 5 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 13 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.