Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | DET | 15 | 182 | 945 | 10 | 71 | 52 | 316 | 1 | 240.1 |
| 2024 | DET | 17 | 250 | 1412 | 16 | 63 | 52 | 517 | 4 | 362.9 |
| 2025 | DET | 16 | 224 | 1143 | 13 | 89 | 74 | 583 | 4 | 344.6 |
| Career | — | 48 | 656 | 3500 | 39 | 223 | 178 | 1416 | 9 | 947.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | RB | 2009 | 0.753 | 21.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 8 | 2304 | 1311 |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | 2020 | 0.745 | 20.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 32 | 9 | 2480 | 1453 |
| Le'Veon Bell | RB | 2021 | 0.738 | 22.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 1613 | 874 |
| Emmitt Smith ⏳ 1992 | RB | 2004 | 0.642 | 21.6 | 15 seasons · ended age 35 | 12 | 3314 | 2048 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | 2011 | 0.638 | 25.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 9 | 3277 | 2295 |
| Barry Sanders ⏳ 1991 | RB | 1998 | 0.632 | 17.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 2500 | 1436 |
| Walter Payton ⏳ 1977 | RB | 1987 | 0.619 | 18.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 2986 | 1883 |
| Ray Rice washed out | RB | 2014 | 0.606 | 20.1 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 1524 | 798 |
| Todd Gurley washed out | RB | 2020 | 0.606 | 21.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 1502 | 710 |
| Clinton Portis | RB | 2010 | 0.586 | 17.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 1819 | 948 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,646.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.598
Comp pool washed-out rate: 15% (3/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,234 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,323. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,251 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,968 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,844 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.893 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,647 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,647 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,646 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.