Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NWE | 15 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Career | — | 15 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Daniels washed out | TE | 2023 | 0.955 | 1.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 31 | 23 |
| Michael Roberts washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.939 | 4.3 | 2 seasons · ended age 24 | 1 | 43 | 35 |
| Matt Dominguez washed out | TE | 2002 | 0.995 | 1.0 | 1 seasons · ended age 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Ellis washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.960 | 0.8 | 1 seasons · ended age 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Ware washed out | TE | 2004 | 0.993 | 1.0 | 1 seasons · ended age 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson washed out | TE | 2014 | 0.991 | 1.1 | 2 seasons · ended age 24 | 1 | 21 | 10 |
| Shad Meier washed out | TE | 2005 | 0.989 | 4.5 | 3 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 75 | 67 |
| Sheldon Jackson washed out | TE | 2001 | 0.986 | 1.4 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 26 | 20 |
| Brody Eldridge washed out | TE | 2012 | 0.974 | 1.4 | 2 seasons · ended age 24 | 1 | 23 | 14 |
| Alan Cross washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.936 | 1.3 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 28 | 13 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 23.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_comp_weighted
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.959
Comp pool washed-out rate: 80% (16/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 67 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 102. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 65 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 67 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.346 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.133 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(23 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 23 × 0.133) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 23 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.