Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NWE | 3 | 34 | 55 | 61.8 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 24.3 |
| 2017 | IND | 16 | 276 | 469 | 58.8 | 3098 | 13 | 7 | 63 | 260 | 4 | 195.9 |
| 2018 | IND | 4 | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | IND | 15 | 272 | 447 | 60.9 | 2942 | 18 | 6 | 56 | 228 | 4 | 210.5 |
| 2020 | IND | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 19 | 3 | 20.6 |
| 2021 | MIA | 11 | 141 | 225 | 62.7 | 1283 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 70 | 1 | 64.3 |
| 2022 | CLE | 16 | 236 | 369 | 64.0 | 2608 | 12 | 6 | 49 | 243 | 2 | 164.6 |
| 2023 | WAS | 3 | 18 | 23 | 78.3 | 224 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 22.9 |
| 2024 | NWE | 8 | 95 | 161 | 59.0 | 826 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 37.2 |
| 2025 | ARI | 13 | 293 | 454 | 64.5 | 3123 | 21 | 7 | 35 | 149 | 1 | 207.8 |
| Career | — | 100 | 1369 | 2215 | 61.8 | 14523 | 74 | 31 | 280 | 1126 | 16 | 947.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | QB | 2008 | 0.629 | 14.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 37 | 3 | 1293 | 335 |
| Steve Beuerlein ⏳ 1998 | QB | 2003 | 0.624 | 18.4 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 4 | 1647 | 680 |
| Neil O'Donnell | QB | 2003 | 0.596 | 14.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 1452 | 57 |
| Jim Plunkett ⏳ 1980 | QB | 1986 | 0.591 | 14.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 39 | 5 | 1812 | 560 |
| Wade Wilson ⏳ 1992 | QB | 1999 | 0.583 | 15.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1163 | 174 |
| Billy Kilmer ⏳ 1972 | QB | 1978 | 0.578 | 13.8 | 13 seasons · ended age 38 | 5 | 1768 | 549 |
| Erik Kramer ⏳ 1997 | QB | 1999 | 0.569 | 16.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 998 | 147 |
| Bill Munson ⏳ 1974 | QB | 1979 | 0.568 | 12.8 | 8 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 826 | 46 |
| Bobby Hebert ⏳ 1993 | QB | 1996 | 0.552 | 15.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 36 | 2 | 1424 | 239 |
| Matt Cassel | QB | 2018 | 0.549 | 15.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 1113 | 14 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 481.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.550
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 459 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 459. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 782 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,006 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 601 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(601 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 601 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.800 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 481 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.