Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CIN | 17 | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 7 | 21 | 302.6 |
| 2022 | CIN | 12 | 134 | 87 | 1046 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 242.4 |
| 2023 | CIN | 16 | 145 | 100 | 1216 | 7 | 3 | -6 | 261.0 |
| 2024 | CIN | 17 | 175 | 127 | 1708 | 17 | 3 | 32 | 403.0 |
| 2025 | CIN | 13 | 155 | 101 | 1147 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 245.1 |
| Career | — | 75 | 737 | 496 | 6572 | 51 | 21 | 69 | 1454.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.569 | 19.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 2449 | 1470 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.528 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 12 | 3461 | 1832 |
| Dez Bryant | WR | 2020 | 0.475 | 16.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1544 | 669 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.470 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 2399 | 1385 |
| Percy Harvin washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.460 | 14.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 896 | 162 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2020 | 0.454 | 15.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 1300 | 562 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | 2021 | 0.443 | 20.5 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 2397 | 1576 |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | 2015 | 0.440 | 19.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 2128 | 1214 |
| Lance Alworth ⏳ 1966 | WR | 1972 | 0.439 | 16.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1467 | 604 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | 2022 | 0.436 | 14.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 1660 | 737 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,206.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.429
Comp pool washed-out rate: 20% (4/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 788 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 873. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,887 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,496 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,447 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.833 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,206 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,206 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,206 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.