Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | MIN | 16 | 47 | 36 | 311 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 77.1 |
| 2020 | MIN | 13 | 43 | 30 | 365 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 96.5 |
| 2022 | MIN | 8 | 36 | 25 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 53.2 |
| 2023 | CIN | 12 | 26 | 18 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.5 |
| 2024 | HOU | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 54 | 152 | 109 | 973 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 260.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | TE | 2019 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 484 | 237 |
| Desmond Clark | TE | 2010 | 0.799 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 7 | 795 | 511 |
| Jesse James washed out | TE | 2023 | 0.794 | 5.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 362 | 57 |
| Anthony Fasano | TE | 2017 | 0.790 | 7.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 8 | 834 | 508 |
| Dan Arnold washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.781 | 6.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 259 | 97 |
| Anthony Becht | TE | 2011 | 0.779 | 5.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 430 | 210 |
| Rob Housler washed out | TE | 2015 | 0.779 | 5.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 2 | 235 | 29 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.773 | 6.3 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 1 | 243 | 69 |
| Luke Willson washed out | TE | 2020 | 0.769 | 4.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 4 | 295 | 117 |
| Lance Kendricks | TE | 2019 | 0.764 | 6.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 597 | 306 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 39.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.768
Comp pool washed-out rate: 55% (11/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 148 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 170. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 548 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 384 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 148 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.585 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(87 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 87 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 39 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.