Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BAL | 12 | 23 | 13 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2019 | BAL | 16 | 39 | 30 | 349 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 76.9 |
| 2020 | ATL | 16 | 88 | 56 | 571 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 149.1 |
| 2021 | ATL | 13 | 31 | 26 | 221 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 60.1 |
| 2022 | CIN | 13 | 68 | 52 | 414 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 105.4 |
| 2023 | CAR | 9 | 32 | 18 | 184 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42.4 |
| 2024 | LAC | 9 | 13 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.3 |
| Career | — | 88 | 294 | 203 | 1975 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 484.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Graham | TE | 2012 | 0.812 | 7.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 594 | 43 |
| Ken Dilger | TE | 2004 | 0.747 | 6.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 802 | 123 |
| Milt Morin ⏳ 1973 | TE | 1975 | 0.726 | 7.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 670 | 69 |
| Itula Mili | TE | 2006 | 0.724 | 5.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 366 | 17 |
| Steve Heiden | TE | 2009 | 0.705 | 6.3 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 436 | 71 |
| Ernie Conwell | TE | 2006 | 0.694 | 6.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 474 | 75 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | 2023 | 0.693 | 9.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 513 | 129 |
| Rodney Holman ⏳ 1991 | TE | 1995 | 0.684 | 7.6 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 907 | 134 |
| Mark Campbell | TE | 2008 | 0.675 | 5.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 33 | 1 | 326 | 36 |
| Marcus Pollard | TE | 2008 | 0.671 | 8.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 35 | 4 | 887 | 276 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 100.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.671
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 128 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 122. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 274 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 135 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 142 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(142 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 142 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 100 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.