The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gates | TE | 2018 | 0.877 | 15.7 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 15 | 2767 | 2038 |
| Randy McMichael | TE | 2012 | 0.919 | 9.3 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 979 | 752 |
| Jerramy Stevens | TE | 2010 | 0.971 | 7.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 8 | 534 | 404 |
| Adam Shaheen washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.979 | 3.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 138 | 90 |
| Alex Smith | TE | 2015 | 0.987 | 6.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 7 | 388 | 274 |
| David Thomas washed out | TE | 2012 | 0.954 | 5.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 243 | 191 |
| Tyler Eifert washed out | TE | 2020 | 0.882 | 12.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 586 | 452 |
| Dallas Clark | TE | 2013 | 0.766 | 15.2 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 10 | 1374 | 1057 |
| Doug Jolley washed out | TE | 2006 | 0.920 | 6.2 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 259 | 175 |
| Mychal Rivera washed out | TE | 2017 | 0.884 | 6.4 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 342 | 232 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 454.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.851
Comp pool washed-out rate: 50% (10/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 639 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 571. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 745 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 703 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.646 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.533 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(454 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 454 × 0.533) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 454 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.