Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TEN | 16 | 89 | 41 | 515 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 116.5 |
| Career | — | 16 | 89 | 41 | 515 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 116.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | WR | 2008 | 0.955 | 13.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 8 | 1170 | 909 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2020 | 0.932 | 15.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 8 | 1300 | 1080 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | 2016 | 0.809 | 17.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 13 | 2484 | 1796 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.732 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 16 | 3461 | 2402 |
| Brandon Gibson washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.975 | 7.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 5 | 514 | 412 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.763 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 12 | 2399 | 1877 |
| Santonio Holmes | WR | 2014 | 0.880 | 11.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 8 | 1065 | 832 |
| Torry Holt | WR | 2009 | 0.764 | 15.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 10 | 2112 | 1621 |
| Will Fuller washed out | WR | 2021 | 0.886 | 17.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 4 | 620 | 466 |
| Troy Edwards washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.954 | 5.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 5 | 379 | 230 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 722.
rookie_nfl_fp_arc
Projection path: rookie_peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.857
Comp pool washed-out rate: 45% (9/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 892 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 825. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,000 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 0 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,000 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.722 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.533 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(722 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 722 × 0.533) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 722 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.