Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | DEN | 5 | 100 | 156 | 64.1 | 1020 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 72 | 0 | 64.0 |
| 2020 | DEN | 13 | 254 | 443 | 57.3 | 2933 | 16 | 15 | 44 | 160 | 3 | 169.3 |
| 2021 | DEN | 6 | 67 | 111 | 60.4 | 787 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 2 | 48.8 |
| 2023 | SEA | 4 | 48 | 76 | 63.2 | 543 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 29.1 |
| 2024 | NYG | 8 | 107 | 181 | 59.1 | 1071 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 133 | 2 | 72.1 |
| 2025 | SEA | 5 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 0 | -3.9 |
| Career | — | 41 | 578 | 970 | 59.6 | 6369 | 34 | 28 | 101 | 427 | 7 | 379.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | QB | 2015 | 0.743 | 12.7 | 6 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 486 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | QB | 2020 | 0.725 | 12.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 35 | 3 | 440 | 113 |
| Tim Rattay washed out | QB | 2007 | 0.697 | 12.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 313 | 57 |
| Bob Waterfield ⏳ 1951 washed out | QB | 1952 | 0.689 | 10.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 748 | 35 |
| Derek Anderson | QB | 2018 | 0.677 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 626 | 65 |
| Blaine Gabbert | QB | 2023 | 0.671 | 13.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 539 | 44 |
| Seneca Wallace | QB | 2013 | 0.670 | 10.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 3 | 356 | 128 |
| David Garrard | QB | 2013 | 0.646 | 18.4 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1308 | 892 |
| Jack Trudeau ⏳ 1990 | QB | 1995 | 0.642 | 11.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 558 | 101 |
| Josh McCown | QB | 2020 | 0.640 | 15.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 39 | 6 | 1177 | 629 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 163.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.645
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 358 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 305. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 933 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 665 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 358 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.739 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(265 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 265 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 0.880 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 163 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.