Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NWE | 13 | 225 | 338 | 66.6 | 2276 | 15 | 10 | 54 | 421 | 2 | 167.1 |
| 2025 | NWE | 16 | 340 | 474 | 71.7 | 4203 | 30 | 8 | 98 | 409 | 4 | 321.0 |
| Career | — | 29 | 565 | 812 | 69.6 | 6479 | 45 | 18 | 152 | 830 | 6 | 488.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | QB | 2015 | 0.758 | 22.1 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 15 | 5062 | 3286 |
| Blake Bortles washed out | QB | 2021 | 0.734 | 16.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 3 | 1166 | 643 |
| Steve Grogan ⏳ 1976 | QB | 1990 | 0.705 | 18.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 12 | 2291 | 1500 |
| Johnny Unitas ⏳ 1957 | QB | 1972 | 0.612 | 21.8 | 16 seasons · ended age 38 | 14 | 3028 | 2071 |
| Andrew Luck washed out | QB | 2018 | 0.597 | 21.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 1714 | 1275 |
| Josh Freeman washed out | QB | 2015 | 0.581 | 16.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 933 | 298 |
| Jack Kemp ⏳ 1961 | QB | 1969 | 0.573 | 17.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 7 | 1725 | 1038 |
| Tony Canadeo ⏳ 1943 | QB | 1952 | 0.559 | 12.1 | 8 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 894 | 531 |
| Robert Griffin III washed out | QB | 2020 | 0.558 | 19.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 828 | 197 |
| Bob Griese ⏳ 1968 | QB | 1980 | 0.556 | 14.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 35 | 11 | 1859 | 1171 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 1,376.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.576
Comp pool washed-out rate: 35% (7/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,314 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,282. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 2,421 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,364 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 2,077 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.669 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.938 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(1,390 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 1,390 × 0.938) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 1,376 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.