Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CLE | 8 | 60 | 112 | 53.6 | 440 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 65 | 0 | 16.1 |
| 2024 | CLE | 7 | 61 | 118 | 51.7 | 440 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 122 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Career | — | 15 | 121 | 230 | 52.6 | 880 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 187 | 0 | 27.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | QB | 2015 | 0.839 | 17.9 | 16 seasons · ended age 40 | 14 | 2382 | 1832 |
| PJ Walker washed out | QB | 2023 | 0.838 | 5.7 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 85 | 73 |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | 2023 | 0.835 | 12.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 36 | 7 | 498 | 444 |
| Seneca Wallace | QB | 2013 | 0.800 | 10.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 356 | 311 |
| Matt Cassel | QB | 2018 | 0.797 | 15.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 1113 | 988 |
| James Harris ⏳ 1971 washed out | QB | 1981 | 0.767 | 14.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 548 | 493 |
| Tim Rattay washed out | QB | 2007 | 0.754 | 12.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 30 | 5 | 313 | 275 |
| Lynn Dickey ⏳ 1974 | QB | 1985 | 0.751 | 17.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 36 | 9 | 1474 | 1091 |
| Matt Flynn washed out | QB | 2015 | 0.745 | 9.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 168 | 133 |
| Gary Danielson ⏳ 1977 | QB | 1988 | 0.727 | 15.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 34 | 6 | 946 | 819 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 110.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: comp_weighted
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.708
Comp pool washed-out rate: 55% (11/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 548 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 504. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 345 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 165 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 548 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.683 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.406 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(375 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 375 × 0.406) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 110 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.