Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | SEA | 16 | 100 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 185.1 |
| 2020 | SEA | 16 | 129 | 83 | 1303 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 271.3 |
| 2021 | SEA | 17 | 129 | 75 | 967 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 242.3 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 141 | 90 | 1048 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226.8 |
| 2023 | SEA | 16 | 119 | 66 | 1114 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 225.4 |
| 2024 | SEA | 15 | 108 | 66 | 992 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 191.2 |
| 2025 | PIT | 15 | 99 | 59 | 850 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 187.2 |
| Career | — | 112 | 825 | 497 | 7174 | 54 | 5 | 29 | 1529.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | WR | 2012 | 0.907 | 16.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 6 | 2724 | 958 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | 2022 | 0.852 | 14.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1660 | 192 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2020 | 0.791 | 15.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1300 | 134 |
| Dez Bryant | WR | 2020 | 0.785 | 16.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1544 | 192 |
| Marques Colston | WR | 2015 | 0.779 | 15.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1866 | 628 |
| Torry Holt | WR | 2009 | 0.778 | 15.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 5 | 2112 | 890 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.774 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 3461 | 1365 |
| Greg Jennings | WR | 2015 | 0.759 | 13.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1568 | 398 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 2022 | 0.757 | 12.9 | 14 seasons · ended age 36 | 7 | 1923 | 598 |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | 2022 | 0.755 | 14.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1744 | 534 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 803.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.757
Comp pool washed-out rate: 5% (1/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 614 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 617. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,045 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,804 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 819 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.981 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(804 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 804 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 803 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.