Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | PHI | 17 | 104 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 183.6 |
| 2022 | PHI | 17 | 136 | 95 | 1196 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 254.6 |
| 2023 | PHI | 16 | 112 | 81 | 1066 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 227.6 |
| 2024 | PHI | 13 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 199.4 |
| 2025 | PHI | 15 | 104 | 72 | 931 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 189.1 |
| Career | — | 78 | 545 | 380 | 4942 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 1054.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | WR | 2015 | 0.850 | 13.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 1335 | 380 |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.836 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 2399 | 1115 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | 2022 | 0.836 | 14.5 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 1660 | 371 |
| Marques Colston | WR | 2015 | 0.834 | 15.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1866 | 813 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 2020 | 0.804 | 15.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 3 | 1300 | 295 |
| Eric Decker washed out | WR | 2017 | 0.795 | 14.2 | 7 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1152 | 332 |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | 2022 | 0.772 | 14.2 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1744 | 668 |
| Greg Jennings | WR | 2015 | 0.768 | 13.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 1568 | 568 |
| Antonio Freeman | WR | 2003 | 0.768 | 13.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 1109 | 367 |
| Kenny Golladay washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.747 | 13.3 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 674 | 108 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 808.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.766
Comp pool washed-out rate: 10% (2/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 618 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 597. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,098 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,481 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 843 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.959 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(808 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 808 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 808 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.