Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | TEN | 15 | 110 | 490 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 137 | 0 | 105.7 |
| 2017 | TEN | 16 | 176 | 744 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 136 | 1 | 133.0 |
| 2018 | TEN | 16 | 215 | 1059 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 99 | 0 | 200.8 |
| 2019 | TEN | 15 | 303 | 1540 | 16 | 24 | 18 | 206 | 2 | 290.6 |
| 2020 | TEN | 16 | 378 | 2027 | 17 | 31 | 19 | 114 | 0 | 329.1 |
| 2021 | TEN | 8 | 219 | 937 | 10 | 20 | 18 | 154 | 0 | 185.1 |
| 2022 | TEN | 16 | 349 | 1538 | 13 | 41 | 33 | 398 | 0 | 292.6 |
| 2023 | TEN | 17 | 280 | 1167 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | 0 | 238.1 |
| 2024 | BAL | 17 | 325 | 1921 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 193 | 2 | 332.4 |
| 2025 | BAL | 16 | 287 | 1469 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 150 | 0 | 264.9 |
| Career | — | 152 | 2642 | 12892 | 122 | 244 | 189 | 1801 | 5 | 2372.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | RB | 2017 | 0.675 | 19.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 2392 | 111 |
| Emmitt Smith | RB | 2004 | 0.671 | 21.6 | 15 seasons · ended age 35 | 4 | 3314 | 445 |
| Walter Payton ⏳ 1985 | RB | 1987 | 0.660 | 18.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 2986 | 353 |
| Curtis Martin | RB | 2006 | 0.576 | 15.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 2496 | 136 |
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.566 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 6 | 3005 | 776 |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | 2020 | 0.562 | 20.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 2480 | 28 |
| Marshall Faulk | RB | 2006 | 0.553 | 25.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 3020 | 106 |
| Ricky Watters | RB | 2001 | 0.545 | 16.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 2167 | 50 |
| Corey Dillon | RB | 2006 | 0.535 | 14.9 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1900 | 189 |
| Fred Taylor | RB | 2010 | 0.534 | 17.0 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 1929 | 152 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 460.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.542
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 209 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 203. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 626 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 2,079 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 460 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(460 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 460 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 460 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.