Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | KAN | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | KAN | 16 | 39 | 21 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42.2 |
| 2018 | KAN | 16 | 33 | 22 | 288 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 74.8 |
| 2019 | KAN | 16 | 55 | 32 | 449 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.9 |
| 2020 | KAN | 16 | 59 | 45 | 466 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 105.6 |
| 2021 | KAN | 17 | 41 | 25 | 264 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 69.4 |
| 2022 | BAL | 17 | 75 | 48 | 458 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 101.8 |
| 2023 | LAR | 16 | 39 | 26 | 371 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 85.4 |
| 2024 | LAR | 17 | 64 | 31 | 505 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 123.5 |
| 2025 | SFO | 13 | 31 | 19 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 50.8 |
| Career | — | 160 | 436 | 269 | 3265 | 28 | 2 | 29 | 754.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Calloway | WR | 2000 | 0.789 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 792 | 10 |
| David Patten | WR | 2008 | 0.746 | 8.0 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 2 | 730 | 159 |
| Henry Marshall ⏳ 1985 | WR | 1987 | 0.745 | 8.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 932 | 85 |
| Ricky Proehl | WR | 2006 | 0.738 | 7.5 | 15 seasons · ended age 37 | 6 | 1371 | 401 |
| James Thrash | WR | 2008 | 0.730 | 8.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 33 | 2 | 634 | 47 |
| Jason Avant | WR | 2015 | 0.726 | 6.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 732 | 25 |
| Dennis Northcutt | WR | 2009 | 0.716 | 7.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 836 | 65 |
| Mike Renfro ⏳ 1986 | WR | 1987 | 0.707 | 7.1 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 702 | 98 |
| Ike Hilliard | WR | 2008 | 0.688 | 8.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 1 | 1081 | 100 |
| Shawn Jefferson | WR | 2003 | 0.684 | 6.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 3 | 961 | 132 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 103.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.693
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 103 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 102. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 213 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 366 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 103 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(103 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 103 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 103 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.