Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | HOU | 16 | 91 | 52 | 802 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 142.2 |
| 2014 | HOU | 16 | 127 | 76 | 1210 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 229.0 |
| 2015 | HOU | 16 | 192 | 111 | 1521 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 327.1 |
| 2016 | HOU | 16 | 151 | 78 | 954 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 197.4 |
| 2017 | HOU | 15 | 174 | 96 | 1378 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 309.8 |
| 2018 | HOU | 16 | 163 | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 1 | -7 | 333.5 |
| 2019 | HOU | 15 | 150 | 104 | 1165 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 264.3 |
| 2020 | ARI | 16 | 160 | 115 | 1407 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 285.8 |
| 2021 | ARI | 10 | 64 | 42 | 572 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 147.2 |
| 2022 | ARI | 9 | 96 | 64 | 717 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 149.7 |
| 2023 | TEN | 17 | 137 | 75 | 1057 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 223.6 |
| 2024 | 2TM | 16 | 80 | 56 | 610 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 145.0 |
| 2024 | TEN | 6 | 21 | 15 | 173 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36.3 |
| 2024 | KAN | 10 | 59 | 41 | 437 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 108.7 |
| 2025 | BAL | 17 | 39 | 22 | 330 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 67.0 |
| Career | — | 211 | 1704 | 1062 | 13905 | 90 | 6 | 21 | 2966.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | WR | 2018 | 0.759 | 16.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 2399 | 28 |
| Julio Jones | WR | 2023 | 0.727 | 19.3 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 1 | 2449 | 36 |
| Randy Moss | WR | 2012 | 0.708 | 16.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 1 | 2724 | 78 |
| Andre Johnson | WR | 2016 | 0.618 | 17.7 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 2484 | 130 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 2020 | 0.556 | 16.8 | 17 seasons · ended age 37 | 4 | 3461 | 631 |
| Isaac Bruce | WR | 2009 | 0.555 | 13.1 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 4 | 2329 | 484 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.522 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 1837 | 107 |
| Hines Ward | WR | 2011 | 0.504 | 13.2 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 2230 | 224 |
| Andre Reed ⏳ 1997 | WR | 2000 | 0.423 | 11.5 | 16 seasons · ended age 36 | 3 | 2072 | 220 |
| Steve Largent ⏳ 1987 | WR | 1989 | 0.416 | 11.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 2 | 1970 | 142 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 389.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 16
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.498
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/16)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 177 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 177. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 530 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 201 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 389 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(389 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 389 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 389 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.