Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | CLE | 16 | 35 | 24 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45.4 |
| 2023 | CLE | 15 | 23 | 14 | 167 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 48.7 |
| 2024 | CLE | 1 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 |
| Career | — | 32 | 61 | 41 | 408 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 99.8 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers washed out | WR | 2022 | 0.980 | 5.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 308 | 205 |
| Devin Thomas washed out | WR | 2011 | 0.931 | 3.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 107 | 6 |
| Brian Robiskie washed out | WR | 2013 | 0.927 | 4.1 | 3 seasons · ended age 24 | 1 | 89 | 5 |
| David Terrell washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.896 | 5.4 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 250 | 145 |
| Shaun McDonald washed out | WR | 2009 | 0.892 | 8.9 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 452 | 335 |
| Bobby Wade washed out | WR | 2009 | 0.889 | 7.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 5 | 505 | 365 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | 2018 | 0.888 | 7.8 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 8 | 549 | 422 |
| Jermaine Kearse washed out | WR | 2019 | 0.872 | 8.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 5 | 619 | 491 |
| John Stallworth ⏳ 1975 | WR | 1987 | 0.872 | 10.5 | 11 seasons · ended age 35 | 9 | 1226 | 943 |
| Santana Moss | WR | 2014 | 0.869 | 12.5 | 14 seasons · ended age 35 | 12 | 1837 | 1401 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 78.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.869
Comp pool washed-out rate: 75% (15/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 390 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 410. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 444 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 250 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 390 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.309 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.800 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(121 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 121 × 0.800) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 78 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.