Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | PIT | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 2024 | PIT | 17 | 25 | 19 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 45.0 |
| 2025 | PIT | 16 | 43 | 31 | 364 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 69.4 |
| Career | — | 50 | 78 | 57 | 625 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 127.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Rosario | TE | 2014 | 0.898 | 4.5 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 289 | 199 |
| Roland Williams washed out | TE | 2005 | 0.861 | 4.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 247 | 141 |
| Dan Arnold washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.853 | 6.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 259 | 191 |
| Daniel Brown washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.849 | 3.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 92 | 47 |
| Josh Hill | TE | 2020 | 0.826 | 3.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 297 | 196 |
| Stephen Anderson washed out | TE | 2023 | 0.822 | 3.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 147 | 59 |
| Leonard Pope washed out | TE | 2012 | 0.807 | 4.4 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 270 | 145 |
| Erron Kinney washed out | TE | 2006 | 0.798 | 9.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 4 | 380 | 264 |
| Rob Housler washed out | TE | 2015 | 0.797 | 5.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 3 | 235 | 119 |
| Seth DeValve washed out | TE | 2020 | 0.796 | 4.0 | 4 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 148 | 40 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 85.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.806
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 186 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 171. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 463 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 302 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 186 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.464 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(86 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 86 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.984 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 13 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 injury-rate dampening (rate_ratio=1.63) |
| = Final production score | 85 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.