Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | MIN | 4 | 74 | 354 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 90 | 0 | 65.4 |
| 2018 | MIN | 11 | 133 | 615 | 2 | 49 | 40 | 305 | 2 | 152.0 |
| 2019 | MIN | 14 | 250 | 1135 | 13 | 63 | 53 | 519 | 0 | 288.4 |
| 2020 | MIN | 14 | 312 | 1557 | 16 | 54 | 44 | 361 | 1 | 327.8 |
| 2021 | MIN | 13 | 249 | 1159 | 6 | 49 | 34 | 224 | 0 | 202.3 |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 264 | 1173 | 8 | 56 | 39 | 295 | 2 | 237.8 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 15 | 67 | 214 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 40.2 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 15 | 67 | 214 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 40.2 |
| 2023 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | DAL | 2 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Career | — | 105 | 1424 | 6441 | 47 | 328 | 252 | 1960 | 5 | 1358.1 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis washed out | RB | 2002 | 0.661 | 19.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1291 | 78 |
| Le'Veon Bell | RB | 2021 | 0.626 | 22.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1613 | 36 |
| Clinton Portis | RB | 2010 | 0.622 | 17.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1819 | 44 |
| Ahman Green | RB | 2009 | 0.610 | 19.1 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1805 | 360 |
| Devonta Freeman washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.587 | 17.1 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1226 | 147 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 2023 | 0.582 | 19.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 2 | 1582 | 112 |
| Larry Brown ⏳ 1975 | RB | 1976 | 0.563 | 16.6 | 8 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1235 | 25 |
| Frank Gore | RB | 2020 | 0.563 | 18.3 | 16 seasons · ended age 37 | 9 | 3005 | 1216 |
| Lenny Moore ⏳ 1962 | RB | 1966 | 0.558 | 18.4 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 4 | 1828 | 468 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | 2014 | 0.552 | 18.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 1912 | 27 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 240.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.565
Comp pool washed-out rate: 15% (3/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 364 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 312. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 909 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 429 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 691 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.771 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(533 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 533 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 240 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.