Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | DET | 13 | 114 | 521 | 8 | 57 | 46 | 357 | 2 | 187.8 |
| 2021 | DET | 13 | 151 | 617 | 5 | 78 | 62 | 452 | 2 | 206.9 |
| 2022 | DET | 14 | 99 | 542 | 5 | 70 | 48 | 389 | 3 | 187.1 |
| 2023 | PHI | 16 | 229 | 1049 | 5 | 49 | 39 | 214 | 1 | 195.3 |
| 2024 | CHI | 17 | 253 | 959 | 6 | 52 | 42 | 386 | 0 | 208.5 |
| 2025 | CHI | 14 | 204 | 993 | 7 | 43 | 31 | 266 | 1 | 200.9 |
| Career | — | 87 | 1050 | 4681 | 36 | 349 | 268 | 2064 | 9 | 1186.5 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | RB | 2006 | 0.815 | 15.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 6 | 2496 | 1195 |
| Ottis Anderson ⏳ 1983 | RB | 1992 | 0.785 | 15.1 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 1931 | 787 |
| Marion Barber washed out | RB | 2011 | 0.780 | 14.5 | 7 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 1138 | 160 |
| Reggie Bush | RB | 2016 | 0.778 | 16.9 | 11 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 1688 | 556 |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | 2019 | 0.753 | 17.7 | 11 seasons · ended age 32 | 5 | 2080 | 838 |
| Warrick Dunn | RB | 2008 | 0.730 | 13.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 2156 | 1081 |
| Clem Daniels ⏳ 1966 washed out | RB | 1967 | 0.725 | 15.8 | 6 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 1150 | 118 |
| Franco Harris ⏳ 1976 | RB | 1984 | 0.721 | 14.6 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 2084 | 1054 |
| Jamal Lewis | RB | 2009 | 0.714 | 15.4 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 1705 | 628 |
| Lamar Miller washed out | RB | 2021 | 0.706 | 13.8 | 7 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 1150 | 170 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 603.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.717
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 529 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 580. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 900 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,456 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 745 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.810 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(603 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 603 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 603 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.