Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CAR | 9 | 26 | 15 | 115 | 0 | 4 | 64 | 32.9 |
| 2018 | CAR | 13 | 65 | 39 | 494 | 5 | 8 | 84 | 136.8 |
| 2019 | CAR | 16 | 105 | 54 | 627 | 6 | 19 | 130 | 171.7 |
| 2020 | CAR | 15 | 97 | 77 | 851 | 3 | 41 | 200 | 210.1 |
| 2021 | WAS | 5 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9.8 |
| 2022 | WAS | 17 | 92 | 64 | 656 | 4 | 38 | 187 | 176.3 |
| 2023 | WAS | 16 | 91 | 62 | 613 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 157.2 |
| 2024 | BUF | 14 | 46 | 31 | 253 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 63.7 |
| 2025 | BUF | 6 | 9 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.1 |
| Career | — | 111 | 540 | 355 | 3717 | 24 | 126 | 729 | 979.6 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | WR | 2015 | 0.817 | 11.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1234 | 343 |
| Billy Howton ⏳ 1959 | WR | 1963 | 0.735 | 10.9 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1230 | 333 |
| Miles Austin | WR | 2015 | 0.720 | 13.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 990 | 137 |
| Sonny Randle ⏳ 1966 | WR | 1967 | 0.715 | 11.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 956 | 77 |
| Eddie Royal | WR | 2016 | 0.707 | 9.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 920 | 74 |
| Dave Parks ⏳ 1971 | WR | 1972 | 0.698 | 11.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 841 | 86 |
| Red Phillips ⏳ 1965 | WR | 1967 | 0.678 | 10.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 871 | 126 |
| Mark Carrier ⏳ 1994 | WR | 1998 | 0.677 | 9.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1263 | 348 |
| Gene Washington ⏳ 1976 | WR | 1979 | 0.676 | 10.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 2 | 1022 | 119 |
| Frank Sanders | WR | 2003 | 0.667 | 9.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 964 | 23 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 155.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.673
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 175 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 155. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 367 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 146 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 182 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(182 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 182 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.850 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 6 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) — v3.8 heavy-injury floor applied |
| = Final production score | 155 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.