Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | JAX | 14 | 31 | 18 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 57.2 |
| 2021 | NYG | 12 | 21 | 11 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.5 |
| 2023 | CHI | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | CHI | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Career | — | 38 | 55 | 31 | 394 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 82.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hatchette washed out | WR | 2003 | 0.863 | 5.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 127 | 34 |
| David Dunn washed out | WR | 2001 | 0.855 | 3.4 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 161 | 7 |
| Nick Williams washed out | WR | 2018 | 0.844 | 3.0 | 3 seasons · ended age 28 | 0 | 48 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn washed out | WR | 2017 | 0.838 | 4.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 1 | 180 | 2 |
| Nate Poole washed out | WR | 2005 | 0.805 | 3.4 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 65 | 8 |
| Bryan Gilmore washed out | WR | 2007 | 0.790 | 2.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 29 | 2 | 135 | 49 |
| Seyi Ajirotutu washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.787 | 1.9 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 67 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ross washed out | WR | 2016 | 0.786 | 2.6 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 103 | 12 |
| David Palmer washed out | WR | 2000 | 0.781 | 2.1 | 4 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 87 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore washed out | WR | 2015 | 0.775 | 1.9 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 1 | 76 | 19 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 11.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.786
Comp pool washed-out rate: 85% (17/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 53 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 51. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 192 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 48 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 53 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.300 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.833 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(16 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 16 × 0.833) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.700 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2025 season entirely (last played 2024) |
| = Final production score | 11 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.