Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | WAS | 10 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | WAS | 12 | 15 | 11 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 2025 | TEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Career | — | 23 | 24 | 13 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.3 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Heller | TE | 2012 | 0.893 | 4.0 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 7 | 231 | 169 |
| Niles Paul washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.888 | 4.0 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 5 | 185 | 139 |
| Daniel Brown washed out | TE | 2021 | 0.886 | 3.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 4 | 92 | 77 |
| James O'Shaughnessy washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.882 | 6.9 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 6 | 232 | 186 |
| Josh Hill | TE | 2020 | 0.881 | 3.7 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 7 | 297 | 246 |
| Marcellus Rivers washed out | TE | 2007 | 0.867 | 3.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 108 | 84 |
| Ryan Hewitt washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.866 | 1.9 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 50 | 29 |
| Troy Niklas washed out | TE | 2017 | 0.864 | 2.9 | 3 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 53 | 28 |
| Jordan Cameron washed out | TE | 2016 | 0.861 | 9.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 4 | 438 | 398 |
| Cory Harkey washed out | TE | 2016 | 0.858 | 2.4 | 4 seasons · ended age 25 | 2 | 66 | 26 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 26.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.861
Comp pool washed-out rate: 70% (14/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 127 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 145. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 257 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 94 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 127 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.381 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 0.500 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(49 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 49 × 0.500) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.450 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. missed 2 full seasons (last played 2023) |
| = Final production score | 26 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.