Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | SEA | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2021 | SEA | 14 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2022 | SEA | 17 | 34 | 25 | 322 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 69.2 |
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 34 | 25 | 247 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 61.7 |
| 2024 | LAR | 17 | 49 | 30 | 294 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 65.4 |
| 2025 | LAR | 15 | 56 | 43 | 408 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 129.8 |
| Career | — | 86 | 183 | 130 | 1320 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 338.0 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerramy Stevens | TE | 2010 | 0.863 | 7.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 534 | 239 |
| Jack Doyle | TE | 2021 | 0.844 | 9.7 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 681 | 433 |
| Anthony Fasano | TE | 2017 | 0.790 | 7.5 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 834 | 413 |
| Vance McDonald | TE | 2020 | 0.763 | 7.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 449 | 249 |
| Martellus Bennett | TE | 2017 | 0.751 | 11.6 | 10 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 1055 | 511 |
| O.J. Howard washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.722 | 8.2 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 399 | 68 |
| Russ Francis ⏳ 1979 | TE | 1988 | 0.720 | 8.4 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 7 | 996 | 484 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | 2022 | 0.717 | 10.2 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 1213 | 664 |
| Dwayne Allen washed out | TE | 2018 | 0.715 | 6.6 | 6 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 396 | 28 |
| Dan Arnold washed out | TE | 2022 | 0.707 | 6.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 259 | 22 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 346.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.719
Comp pool washed-out rate: 25% (5/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 296 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 316. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 622 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 517 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 391 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.885 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(346 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 346 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 346 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.