Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ARI | 12 | 68 | 43 | 590 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 123.5 |
| 2019 | ARI | 13 | 108 | 68 | 709 | 3 | 10 | 93 | 166.2 |
| 2020 | ARI | 14 | 79 | 48 | 621 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 144.4 |
| 2021 | ARI | 17 | 103 | 77 | 982 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 206.3 |
| 2022 | JAX | 17 | 133 | 84 | 1108 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 241.9 |
| 2023 | JAX | 12 | 85 | 57 | 787 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 150.3 |
| 2024 | JAX | 8 | 47 | 27 | 379 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 70.9 |
| 2025 | HOU | 13 | 52 | 28 | 239 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 57.9 |
| Career | — | 106 | 675 | 432 | 5415 | 30 | 22 | 159 | 1161.4 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | WR | 2018 | 0.820 | 12.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1517 | 312 |
| Carl Pickens | WR | 2000 | 0.813 | 13.2 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1177 | 24 |
| Santonio Holmes | WR | 2014 | 0.797 | 11.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1065 | 13 |
| Roy Williams | WR | 2011 | 0.794 | 13.0 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1048 | 87 |
| Darrell Jackson | WR | 2008 | 0.770 | 13.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1170 | 32 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | 2023 | 0.760 | 12.6 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1066 | 72 |
| Lee Evans | WR | 2011 | 0.757 | 11.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 30 | 1 | 1071 | 10 |
| Dwayne Bowe | WR | 2015 | 0.750 | 13.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 2 | 1335 | 127 |
| Andre Rison ⏳ 1996 | WR | 2000 | 0.744 | 12.7 | 12 seasons · ended age 33 | 4 | 1636 | 360 |
| Mark Clayton ⏳ 1990 | WR | 1993 | 0.736 | 11.7 | 10 seasons · ended age 32 | 3 | 1412 | 316 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 331.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.731
Comp pool washed-out rate: 0% (0/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 316 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 299. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 580 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 346 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 384 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 1.000 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(384 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 384 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 0.862 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. only 11 of 17 games in 2025 (partial season — v3.7 scaled penalty) |
| = Final production score | 331 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.