Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Rush Att | Rush Yds | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | TEN | 17 | 46 | 32 | 450 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 95.2 |
| 2023 | TEN | 17 | 77 | 54 | 528 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 113.4 |
| 2024 | TEN | 17 | 70 | 52 | 479 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 109.6 |
| 2025 | TEN | 17 | 79 | 56 | 560 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 124.0 |
| Career | — | 68 | 272 | 194 | 2017 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 442.2 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scaife washed out | TE | 2011 | 0.838 | 7.5 | 6 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 574 | 302 |
| Dallas Clark | TE | 2013 | 0.828 | 15.2 | 11 seasons · ended age 34 | 8 | 1374 | 960 |
| Bubba Franks | TE | 2008 | 0.813 | 6.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 4 | 640 | 155 |
| Alge Crumpler | TE | 2010 | 0.811 | 11.0 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 1025 | 685 |
| Kevin Boss washed out | TE | 2012 | 0.794 | 8.4 | 5 seasons · ended age 27 | 1 | 470 | 83 |
| Paul Coffman ⏳ 1982 washed out | TE | 1988 | 0.786 | 9.7 | 7 seasons · ended age 29 | 3 | 861 | 428 |
| Jean Fugett ⏳ 1977 washed out | TE | 1979 | 0.774 | 7.3 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 2 | 420 | 127 |
| Alex Smith | TE | 2015 | 0.773 | 6.2 | 8 seasons · ended age 31 | 4 | 388 | 62 |
| Lance Kendricks | TE | 2019 | 0.772 | 6.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 5 | 597 | 235 |
| Daniel Graham | TE | 2012 | 0.770 | 7.4 | 10 seasons · ended age 33 | 7 | 594 | 330 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 261.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.771
Comp pool washed-out rate: 35% (7/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 366 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 367. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 576 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 701 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 373 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.700 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(261 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 261 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 261 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.