Season-by-season production from Pro Football Reference, with fantasy points computed under Superflex PPR (1 PPR · 4 pt pass TD · 6 pt rush/rec TD · −2 INT · −2 fumble). Career totals on the bottom row.
| Year | Team | GP | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | HOU | 15 | 319 | 499 | 63.9 | 4108 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 3 | 265.0 |
| 2024 | HOU | 17 | 336 | 532 | 63.2 | 3727 | 20 | 12 | 52 | 233 | 0 | 216.4 |
| 2025 | HOU | 14 | 273 | 423 | 64.5 | 3041 | 19 | 8 | 48 | 209 | 1 | 204.5 |
| Career | — | 46 | 928 | 1454 | 63.8 | 10876 | 62 | 25 | 139 | 609 | 4 | 685.9 |
The top-10 most similar long-arc NFL players matched by fantasy-point production curve at this career stage. Each comp's "Peak 3yr fp/g" is their best 3-season fp/g average under Superflex PPR (era-pace-adjusted to modern). Similarity is bounded in (0, 1] — 1.0 means an identical career-stage profile vector. "Career" notes the comp's NFL longevity; the washed out badge flags comps whose career ended by age 30 with fewer than 8 NFL seasons (the engine’s bust definition). The ⏳ 1985 badge marks comps whose snapshot season predates 1999 — the corpus now spans 1980-2025, so Payton, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Rice, Marino-era greats are eligible matches. Pre-1999 comps carry a 0.9× confidence haircut because era-pace adjustment is principled but not perfect.
| Comparable | Pos | Last season | Similarity | Peak 3yr fp/g | Career | Post-age seasons | Career fp | Projected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman washed out | QB | 2015 | 0.802 | 16.7 | 5 seasons · ended age 25 | 1 | 933 | 35 |
| Blake Bortles washed out | QB | 2021 | 0.736 | 16.6 | 5 seasons · ended age 26 | 2 | 1166 | 397 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2021 | 0.709 | 18.5 | 17 seasons · ended age 39 | 14 | 4082 | 2557 |
| Drew Bledsoe ⏳ 1996 | QB | 2006 | 0.690 | 16.9 | 13 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 2881 | 1660 |
| Joe Namath ⏳ 1967 | QB | 1977 | 0.646 | 15.8 | 12 seasons · ended age 34 | 9 | 1694 | 922 |
| Vince Young washed out | QB | 2011 | 0.640 | 14.5 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 763 | 305 |
| Bob Hoernschemeyer ⏳ 1948 | QB | 1954 | 0.639 | 17.3 | 9 seasons · ended age 30 | 6 | 1534 | 833 |
| Jack Kemp ⏳ 1962 | QB | 1969 | 0.636 | 17.9 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1725 | 1002 |
| Byron Leftwich washed out | QB | 2012 | 0.633 | 15.2 | 5 seasons · ended age 28 | 3 | 694 | 271 |
| Milt Plum ⏳ 1960 | QB | 1967 | 0.630 | 14.1 | 9 seasons · ended age 31 | 6 | 1261 | 688 |
Every component below is sourced from the engine output
(engine_rankings.json) and the displayed comp table. The
final production score is 838.
fantasy_arc_v2
Projection path: peak_anchored
Comps: 25
Avg similarity (top 20): 0.643
Comp pool washed-out rate: 30% (6/20)
| Step | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Comp-weighted projection (v3.3 primary) | 1,048 | Σ (simi × post-age-fpi) / Σ simi. Sanity check from the top-20 row data on this page: 1,038. This is the “weighted average of the comparable players’ actual realised post-age fantasy points” — Phil's 2026-05-28 brief. |
| Peak-anchored projection | 1,979 | The player's own peak-3yr-fp/g × expected games × horizon × 5%/yr time discount, capped at 1.25× the top single-comp projection. Used as a soft blend for elite-tier producers (60/40 comp-weighted / capped peak) so a Mahomes / Allen isn't fully dragged to the comp-pool mean. |
| Banked-credit floor (diagnostic only) | 1,366 | The v3.1 “dynasty equity” floor = career_total_fp × yrs-rem-weight + recent rate × short forward window. v3.3 no longer lets this override the projection — banked production is already realised, not “remaining.” Shown for transparency. |
| Raw projection (pre-penalty) | 1,342 | Blended comp-weighted + capped peak-anchored, per the v3.3 methodology described above. |
| × Survival | 0.625 | Multiplier reflecting how many comps washed out by age 30. Today: 1 − 0.5 × bust_rate. |
| × Sample confidence | 1.000 | Shrinks small-sample projections toward the position-tier baseline when raw > baseline; multiplies straight otherwise. = max(839 × confidence + baseline × (1−conf), or 839 × 1.000) when below baseline. |
| × Late-breakout penalty | 1.000 | QB-only. Scales by confidence so unproven late-breakout rookies only pay a fraction of the discount. |
| × Missed-season penalty (v3.3) | 1.000 | Multiplicative haircut for players who didn't play (or only played a partial slate) in the most recent NFL season. 0.70 for a full missed season, 0.85 for <8 games, 0.45 for two+ full missed seasons. played full most-recent season |
| = Final production score | 838 | Drives the player's rank on the Similarity Scores page. |
Want this player ranked under your league's specific scoring + roster rules? Head to Dynasty Rankings.